2016 Australian Open Preview
Players, fans and everyone in between have waited four long months for answers to many of their questions. Could anybody possibly knock off the two players who completed arguably a couple of the best individual seasons in the history of tennis? Will there be a new tier of athletes who rise up to challenge those champions’ throne? What will the world see out of legends looking to make some noise at the end of their careers?
In the world of tennis, the Australian Open is always the first stop where many of those questions, at least to an extent, are answers. Melbourne gives players a chance to make their opening statements as they buckle themselves in for the roller coaster that is a tennis campaign.
The men’s side of the draw
Contenders
When one thinks of some of the best tennis campaigns of all-time, Roger Federer’s 92-5 2006 season comes to mind along with Rod Laver’s Calendar Grand Slam-winning 1969. You can throw Novak Djokovic’s 2015 season right into that mix as one of the finest in history. The Serbian won three Grand Slam titles, only losing in the French Open final to Stan Wawrinka. Other than that, Djokovic set the record for most ATP Masters 1000 titles in a year with six, won the ATP World Tour Finals and showed the most consistently elite tennis in a calendar year, compiling a record of 82-6.
Roger Federer is arguably the best player to ever pick up a tennis racket. But at 34-years-old, how much does he have left to give? If last season showed the world anything, it is that Federer still has jaw-dropping tennis to bring to the court. From his so-called SABR (Sneak Attack By Roger) in which he would surprise opponents by returning their serves from near the service line to overall consistent performance, Federer was not far off from adding an 18th major to his mantle. Djokovic stood in his way at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, both four-set championship losses, but there is no reason to believe that he cannot threaten again.
Stanislas Wawrinka, 2014 Australian Open champion, kept Djokovic from the history books in 2015. One may call his 48 winners in the final three sets of the French Open final masterpieces of aggression. A few years back, before Wawrinka entrenched himself inside the top 10, he would not be able to maintain that level for a full match. Wawrinka may not produce the year-round results that Djokovic does, but he has advanced to the quarterfinals or better at eight of the last nine majors. When he gets there.
Pretenders
Andy Murray led Great Britain to its first Davis Cup title since 1936. By all accounts, it was a major accomplishment, but it does leave many questions unanswered. Did he put everything in his tank out on the court to win the team title? Will the offseason be enough time mentally to recover and refocus on Murray’s individual goals? Armed with an all-around game that has allowed him to challenge and even beat Djokovic in the past, Murray has the potential to win every tournament he plays. But it is very possible that he will start the year off slowly and not reach his fifth Australian Open final.
Japan’s Kei Nishikori burst onto the scene at the 2014 U.S. Open, reaching the finals in Flushing Meadows, and then reached the quarterfinals of both the Australian and French Opens in 2015. But an array of injuries have halted the progress of the talented Nishikori, and despite his top 10 seed, don’t expect Nishikori to make a deep run in Melbourne.
Young Australian Nick Kyrgios has proven that he has the game and the confidence to take on the best in the sport. He beat Federer, Wawrinka and Milos Raonic in 2015. But on the flip side, Kyrgios is also 20-years-old and is still developing. Young players are bound to have mental lapses, especially in front of a partisan home crowd—how could that not be distracting? While nobody will be surprised to see Kyrgios threaten to make another second week in Melbourne, losing to a wily veteran early is a more likely option.
Sleepers
Every few years, all eyes turn to the so-called “next generation” of players who people claim will be tennis’ superstars sooner or later. Most recently, on the men’s side, this generation was said to be led by Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov. Nishikori found his way to one Grand Slam final at the 2014 U.S. Open but other than that, none have proven to be a consistent threat at the Slams. Today’s “next generation” is led by a talented group, perhaps more so than the last, consisting of Borna Coric, Andrey Rublev and arguably the best of the three, Alexander Zverev. At only 18, he is firmly inside the world’s top-100, and is only going to move up. Sporting a six-foot six-inch tall frame and clean, crisp strokes across the board, the youngster will have a chance to fill out his body and become a threat off the ground against whoever stands across the net. Now, the German will not win the Australian Open and making a very deep run is probably out of the question, but with no pressure against a top player who has all the pressure to beat a newcomer, do not rule out Zverev. He can play, and will be on the contender list consistently in a few years.
A player who has been on many contenders list in years past is Rafael Nadal. For the first time since 2004, the Spaniard failed to reach a major semifinal. Still rounding himself into form after all of the injuries he has dealt with, Nadal flew under the radar, as Djokovic and Federer put on a show in 2015. Even though he finished the year fifth in the rankings, Nadal is not considered a favorite for the Australian Open. The man owns 14 Grand Slam titles including one in Melbourne in 2009. With that resume, do not be surprised if Nadal makes a deep run.
A player who does not have those same credentials but is always a threat is Tomas Berdych. The top-ranked man from the Czech Republic, Berdych has too much game for virtually every player on the ATP Tour. Few can compete with the overwhelming pace of his forehand and backhand. Berdych has reached the quarterfinals or better in each of the last five Australian Opens, and is without a doubt a player who can threaten the top guys in the second week. Playing him is like treading water in the ocean—the water will keep coming relentlessly just like his game, unless someone finds enough variety to catch onto the current and ride it safely to shore. The best of the best like Djokovic and Murray are able to take Berdych out of his baseline bashing patterns to control play themselves, but if not, Berdych is a real threat.
The women’s side of the draw
Contenders
Serena Williams held the world’s attention on her racket at the 2015 U.S. Open. Two wins. Three sets. That was all that stood between the world number one and her storied pursuit of the elusive Calendar Grand Slam. A winner of four consecutive majors, the younger Williams sister was that close to capturing a fifth consecutive Grand Slam, sweeping the calendar’s four biggest titles. Then she lost. Nobody, including her opponent, Roberta Vinci, thought that Williams would walk out of Arthur Ashe Stadium a loser after the semifinals. But she did. Is Serena done? Absolutely not. While she has laid low for a large majority of the fall, Williams will head into Melbourne as the heavy favorite to capture the year’s first major. Armed with the biggest serve in the history of women’s tennis and an under recognized variety off the ground, the only one who will likely be able to defeat the best in the world is herself.
Someone who will try to get in Serena’s way is Maria Sharapova. The Russian missed the U.S. Open, but is on track to make another Slam run when the Australian Open gets underway. She has made the semifinals or further in Melbourne seven times, including her 2008 title run. There is nobody in the sport who brings a more intense focus and desire to win point-in and point-out, and few could keep up with her deep, hard-hit groundstrokes. Look for her to stick around and possibly be an obstacle for Serena towards the tournament’s end.
Someone who was an obstacle for Serena in 2015 was Garbine Muguruza. The number three-ranked player in the world still has not broken through for the casual fan just yet, but this tournament may be where that happens. There is virtually nobody who can trade groundstrokes with Serena, but the Spaniard is pretty close. Despite a shocking loss to Johanna Konta in the second round of the U.S. Open, Muguruza still managed to close her year out on a strong note by making the semis at the WTA Finals. It is hard to argue that anybody will beat Serena down under, but if the top seed is sent packing, look out for the 22-year-old at the bookend of the tournament.
Pretenders
Czech Karolina Pliskova is one of the most purely talented players on the WTA Tour. She reached a career-high of seventh in the world just before the U.S. Open and looked like she could possibly be the next “unknown talent” to make a deep run at a major. But at the same time, Pliskova has struggled at the majors. The 23-year-old has worked her way up the rankings, but the furthest she has made it at a Slam is the third round, she has done that twice, at last year’s Australian Open and the 2014 U.S. Open. While her ranking and more-than-solid baseline game is conducive to hard courts, experience is valuable. Without having made a second week, the future star will not have enough quite yet to threaten for the title.
In contrast, Agnieszka Radwanska has a lot of experience at all levels of the sport. Poland’s top player has reached the quarterfinals or later in a Grand Slam 11 times, including one run to the finals at Wimbledon in 2012. There may be no other athlete in the sport—male or female—who brings as many tricks with them to the tennis court. Radwanska can play defense, use a plethora of slices, create angles around the court and simply confuse her opponents. But there are many players in today’s game who can hit through Radwanska’s defenses. She may be able to get past one or possibly two of those types of opponents, but eventually her run will come to an end.
The player most likely to defy Radwanska’s spot on this list is Romanian world number two, Simona Halep. In recent years, she has shown those who may not be week-to-week tennis fans that she is capable of becoming a household name. But at some point, all hot streaks come to an end. From the 2014 Australian Open through the 2015 Australian Open, Halep reached the quarterfinals or better at every Slam except for the U.S. Open. Since, she has lost in the second round of the French Open and in the opening round of Wimbledon. While she did make the semifinals of the U.S. Open, Halep struggled after her run in Flushing. The offseason is meant to refresh players and give them a shot at recovering for a new season. But will that be able to replenish Halep’s confidence?
Sleepers
Serena’s sister, Venus Williams is as much a contender as she is a sleeper, but somehow, the elder Williams sister has found herself flying under the radar. After closing out 2014 ranked 18th in the world, she defied her age of 35 to put together a strong season. If it were not for her own sister beating her in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon and in the U.S. Open’s quarterfinal, who knows how far Venus could have gone? Venus looks stronger than she has in years, and if her draw opens up in Melbourne, the oldest player in the top-100 stands a chance to win her first Grand Slam since 2008.
It is as if the tennis world has forgotten that Victoria Azarenka has won two Grand Slam titles. And news flash … they both came at the Australian Open. Azarenka is still working herself back from injuries the last couple of years, but she has shown that she is not far off in terms of results. At both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, the Belarusian lost in the quarterfinals, to Serena and Halep, respectively. Each defeat came in three sets, and if she gets to the second week again, there is no doubt that one of the best players in the game has the ability to give the top players trouble.
While she is only 18-years-old, Belinda Bencic has beaten stars, and a lot of them. At the Canadian Open in August, she won the title by beating an impressive list of players—each had at some point in their career been in the world's top 12. To beat Serena and Halep in back-to-back three-setters to seal the deal made it all the more impressive. The scary part for her future opponents is that Bencic will only get better. If she catches fire in Melbourne, look out.
