Robin’s Ripple Effect

It was 2011, in the tunnels connecting Louis Armstrong Stadium and the Grandstand on the grounds of the U.S. Open at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Leaving a quick practice session, Robin Soderling, perhaps the most dangerous player in the draw at any event he competed in, left the tunnel to head back to his hotel in New York City for the night. The Swede would pull out of the tournament, deciding that his bout with mononucleosis was not quite over just yet. Nearly three years later, the towering righty with a career high ranking of fourth in the world has yet to play a professional match again. With his absence, the game has not been the same.

Just five years ago, on the terre battue of the French Open’s Court Philippe Chatrier, history was made when Soderling completed arguably the biggest upset in the history of tennis. It was supposed to be a match like any other for Rafael Nadal. The now eight-time French Open champion had never lost a match at Roland Garros, and had cruised through the first three rounds of what looked like would be his fifth straight title there.

Enter Robin Soderling. Going into the 2009 French Open, the big-serving, hard-hitting Swede had never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam. The likelihood that he would beat the best clay courter to ever live in the fourth round of a Grand Slam? Slim to none.

Three-and-a-half hours after the pair took the court, a ball landing in the far doubles alley off the racket of Nadal sealed Soderling’s fate in tennis lore for years to come. For argument’s sake, the 29-year-old could end up being the one and only player to ever solve the Nadal puzzle on the red clay of the French Open. The Spaniard won his first four titles there, and the last four since his loss to Soderling. Will he ever lose there again? Don’t doubt Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

The real question is, what has happened to Soderling? He ran through the rest of the draw that year to reach his first Grand Slam final, falling to the greatest player to ever live in Roger Federer. The very next year, he disappeared off of the planet and was ousted early, right? Not a chance.

After cruising through the first four rounds of the 2010 French Open, Soderling showed that his run the year before was anything but a fluke. Blasting his way through the slow red clay of Paris, Soderling beat defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals on his way to a repeat championship round appearance. Although he fell to Nadal, the Swede cemented his reputation in the top tier of the tennis world, always a threat to beat any player on any given day.

Without a hitch, Soderling maintained a ranking in the top five in the world through 2011, falling once again to Nadal at the French Open. A surprisingly early exit to the ever-confusing young Aussie Bernard Tomic, Soderling would never be the same. After blitzing the field at his home tournament, the 2011 Swedish Open, Soderling succumbed to mononucleosis.

According to the Mayo Clinic, mononucleosis is a disease that causes many symptoms, including fatigue, sore throat and fever. For a tennis player that depends on their physical fitness to make a living, mono is not the friendliest disease to catch. Other great players in the game including Federer and American Andy Roddick have had mono, but have not suffered quite the same consequences as Soderling.

After suffering setbacks in attempts to get back to his normal practice routine according to ESPN, Soderling still has not played a match. My question is … what if Robin Soderling never got mononucleosis, and continued where he left off in the middle of the 2011 season?

At some points, one could argue that nobody could strike the ball harder than Soderling. A massive first serve, coupled with two of the hardest hit groundstrokes in the entire game, nobody would want a piece of the Swedish star. Coached by Magnus Norman, who has since taken Stanislas Wawrinka to his first Grand Slam title, the relatively quiet giant left no doubt: Matches would be won and lost on his terms.

Without any hesitation, nobody hit a bigger, flatter ball on either the forehand or backhand wing. Nobody. Nadal may have had the bigger weapon in his forehand, and Novak Djokovic may have had the steadiest counter-punching tool in his backhand, but when a hittable ball sat up, Soderling consistently put the hammer down.

Although he wasn’t technically the best in the footwork department, and lacked the foot speed of some other top players, Soderling made up for it with his brute force. An underrated volleyer, nobody would give Soderling a short ball and have an easy passing shot.

Would Andy Murray have won two Grand Slams and an Olympic Gold Medal? Would Wawrinka have gone on his Cinderella run at the 2014 Australian Open to win his first Grand Slam? Consider the scenario of Wawrinka having to play Soderling instead of Tomas Berdych in the semifinals. Does he win that match or have enough energy to take Nadal out in the finals?

Every time Soderling was in a draw, he had the ability to take anybody out. Without him, a top-level player is missing from the top of the game. His absence may be good for the players, but the entertainment he provided has been sorely missed. How many Grand Slams would the Swede have won? Who would he have dethroned? Could he have reached the pinnacle of the game? Unfortunately, five years after the biggest upset in our game’s history, we’ll never know.

The first thing to think about is if Soderling would have maintained his residence in the top five, who would have fallen?

It is hard to ignore the correlation between the disappearance of the big-serving Swede and the rise of David Ferrer. From the start of his career until the 2011 U.S. Open, Ferrer made the quarterfinals of a major four times. Since the moment Soderling was off the ATP Tour, Ferrer has never failed to make the quarters. In the 10 Grand Slams from the 2011 U.S. Open, until the recently completed 2014 Australian Open, Ferrer has made four quarterfinals, five semifinals and a championship round appearance at last year’s French Open. However, much of that upswing has to do with the tremendous work ethic and competitive fire of Ferrer on the court, it is really hard to peak in a career near its end.

If Soderling were still playing, taking swings at the ball with his tremendous windmill forehand, Ferrer may very well be out of the top 10 at this point.

Every year, analysts discuss how the former clay-court grinder in Ferrer has to start falling back in the rankings, and that he’s gotten the most he could out of his game. I’d like to argue that behind Soderling and the Big Four, nobody else can beat Ferrer when he is on his game, which is almost all of the time. At Grand Slams, being the top seed in your quarter of the draw makes life so much easier, compared to having to play a Djokovic or Nadal in the first week. As much respect as Ferrer has earned, Soderling simply had more game, and take away his relatively easy draws into the second week, and Ferrer might have been a consistent low teens player compared to the top five ranked star that he has become.

Having that extra player at the top of the game creates so many theoretical situations, but could have truly had even a bigger impact on the game. So much in this sport can change in a moment’s notice based on one tournament, and missing a huge threat for the last few years could have really given some players big opportunities.

For argument’s sake, Jerzy Janowicz, one of the up-and-coming stars of our game, may have never gotten his start without Soderling’s absence. At the Masters 1000 event in Paris in 2012, the Polish superstar, now ranked 20th in the world, announced himself to the tennis world with a Cinderella run to the finals, beating the likes of Andy Murray and Janko Tipsarevic. For all intents and purposes, if Soderling, arguably a more consistent, slightly bigger-hitting form of Janowicz, was in the draw, he could have only won a match or two before playing the Swede. Janowicz is the same guy who lost to UCLA player Dennis Novikov, ranked 614th in the world at the 2012 U.S. Open. Without the confidence booster that was his Cinderella run in Paris, who knows where he would be.

Even dropping one or two spots in the rankings when you’re at the top of the game changes the whole dynamic of a tournament for players. Take the 2013 Australian Open for example. Wawrinka played Djokovic in the Round of 16, losing a classic match. If he won that match, would he have been able to go all the way? Probably not. This year, Wawrinka played Djokovic in the quarters, won, and went all the way to win the Aussie Open. Having to play an extra elite player in a Grand Slam by dropping out of the top eight seeds makes life a whole lot more difficult.

Missing a journeyman from the lower rungs of the ATP World Tour may not impact the game. Nobody is going to miss the entertainment, and no Grand Slam results would have been any different. Robin Soderling has been gone for almost three years now, and it is more than likely that some players would not be where they are today without his absence.